Dec 12, 2011

Brazil: GDP Forecast for 2012

The Central Bank of Brazil performs a weekly survey of leading economic indicators in Brazil. In the latest survey, that was released today, forecasts for GDP growth in 2011 and 2012 were respectively 2.97% and 3.40%. In early 2011 these forecasts were both 4.5%, as we see in the chart below.

The level of accuracy of this survey is very poor. On the one hand, in 2011, the government will take measures to accelerate domestic consumption, on the other hand, the prices of the main Brazilian products exported is expected to fall, which should contribute to the reduction of GDP. It is very difficult to set a forecast for the Brazilian economy in 2012 with the high degree of uncertainty that exists today.

Source: Central Bank of Brazil

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