Brazil: Exports of Commodities
The fall in commodity prices, which began in 2012, and was stronger in the second half of 2014, had a significant impact on the value of exports of Brazilian commodities.
Exports of primary products reached the value of USD 124 billion in annualized values in April 2012 and currently stand at USD 80 billion in the last 12 months.
The fall in commodity prices can be explained by the slowdown in global growth, especially in China, which is the largest importer of Brazilian products. In addition to slowing production, we can also cite as causes excessive investment and increased capacity above the demand growth in various products, including, iron ore, which has been the main product of Brazilian export basket.
Figure 1 attached shows the value of Brazilian exports of basic products accumulated in the last 12 months. As we can see, growth was slow between 1990 and 2002, and accelerated between 2003 and 2012, except for 2009. As of 2012, exports began to slow down until the last data available, which is September 2016. There is a not currently significant change in global growth prospects, especially in China, although the volume of investments in commodities decelerated significantly in some sectors. It is unlikely that the exported value returns to 2002 levels, but growth from the current level are also limited.